BPCE - 2018 Risk report / Pillar III

BPCE - 2018 Risk report / Pillar III


Contents Communication policy and structure of the Pillar III report


8 MARKET RISKS Market risk policy 8.1


1 SUMMARY OF RISKS Types of risk 1.1

164 165 167 169 172


Market risk management 8.2

6 7 9

Market risk measurement methods 8.3

Key figures 1.2 

Quantitative disclosures 8.4

Regulatory changes 1.3 

Detailed quantitative disclosures 8.5

Main risks and emerging risks 1.4

11 12

Risk factors 1.5




Governance and structure 9.1

178 179 181 184 185 186


Liquidity risk management policy 9.2

Quantitative disclosures 9.3

Participants in the control system 2.1

22 23

Management of structural interest rate risk 9.4 Management of structural foreign exchange risk 9.5 Detailed quantitative disclosures on liquidity risk 9.6

Permanent and Periodic Control departments 2.2 Structure of Groupe BPCE’s internal control 2.3 system






Legal and arbitration proceedings – BPCE 10.1 Legal and arbitration proceedings – Natixis 10.2

192 193 196

Regulatory framework 3.1 Scope of application 3.2

28 30 32 35 37 40

Dependency 10.3

Composition of regulatory capital 3.3 Regulatory capital requirements 3.4 and risk-weighted assets Management of capital adequacy 3.5 Detailed quantitative disclosures 3.6 4 RISK GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM



Compliance 11.1

199 202 204 205 207

Financial security 11.2 Business continuity 11.3


Information System Security (ISS) 11.4

Operational risks 11.5

Governance of risk management 4.1

64 70 74

Compliance and Risks – Insurance & 11.6 Non-Banking Operations

Groupe BPCE’s risk management system 4.2

212 215

Recovery Plan 4.3

Technical Insurance risks 11.7


12 CLIMATE RISKS Organization 12.1



Credit risk management 5.1

76 83 91 94

220 221

Risk measurement and internal ratings 5.2 Credit risk mitigation techniques 5.3

Activities in 2018 and strategic guidelines 12.2

Quantitative disclosures 5.4



Detailed quantitative disclosures 5.5


6 COUNTERPARTY RISK Counterparty risk management 6.1




136 138 140

Index to Pillar III Report tables 14.1

226 228 229 230

Quantitative disclosures 6.2

Cross-reference table for the Pillar III Report 14.2 

Detailed quantitative disclosures 6.3

EDTF cross-reference table 14.3

Glossary 14.4

7 SECURITIZATION TRANSACTIONS 151 Regulatory framework and accounting methods 7.1 152 Securitization management at Groupe BPCE 7.2 154 Quantitative disclosures 7.3 155 Detailed quantitative disclosures 7.4 158

Risk Report Pillar III 2018

The purpose of Pillar III is to establishmarket discipline through a series of reporting requirements.These requirements– both qualitativeand quantitative – are intended to improve financial transparency in the assessment of risk exposure, risk assessment procedures and capital adequacy. Pillar III therefore enhancesminimumcapital requirements (Pillar I) and theprudentialsupervision process(Pillar II).


Risk Report Pillar III 2018


Risk Report Pillar III 2018

Communication policy and structure of the Pillar III report

This report provides information on Groupe BPCE’s risks and thus CRR) Directive No. 2013/36 on access to the activity of complies with Regulation No. 575/2013 on prudential requirements credit institutionsand the prudentialsupervisionof credit institutions for credit institutions and investment firms (Capital Requirements and investment firms (Capital RequirementsDirective IV – CRD IV). Regulation–

Improvement of transparency In order to improve the transparency of information published each year in its Pillar III report and meet the needs of investors and analysts, Groupe BPCE is fully committed to the Financial Stability Board initiatives aimed at improving financial disclosures (Enhanced Disclosure Task Force – EDTF). A cross-referenceTable between EDTF recommendations and published information is presented on page 229. In January 2015, the Basel Committee published phase one of the overhaul of Pillar III disclosures on credit, counterparty and market risks, and securitization transactions. In December 2016, the European Banking Authority in turn published its recommendations,

adapting the proposals of the Basel Committee to the prudential requirementsin Part Eight of the CRR, “Disclosureby institutions”.In March 2017, the Basel Committee completed the review of Pillar III disclosures, consolidating current and future requirements. The regulators aim to fully standardize disclosures to investors in the interest of facilitatingthe comparisonof risk profiles, by introducing detailed tables, the majority of which will follow mandatory templates. Groupe BPCE draws on EBA guidelines for the publication of its Pillar III report.


The policy governingthe publicationof Pillar III information,drawingon recommendationsby the EuropeanBankingAuthority,was approvedby the Supervisory Board onDecember 14, 2016.

Structure of the Pillar III report

The PillarIII report is divided into 14 sections: section 1 presents key figures, the regulatory environment, main ● risks, emergingrisks and risk factors; section 2 explains the overall structure of Groupe BPCE’s internal ● control system; section3 covers capital management and capital adequacy; ●

section 4 describes Groupe BPCE’s risk governance and ● managementframework; subsequentsections provide detailed disclosures on Groupe BPCE’s ● main risks. Each section describes risk management and organizational principles, provides an overview of key disclosures and sets out detailed quantitative information in a separate sub-section.


Risk Report Pillar III 2018


Risk Report Pillar III 2018






Main risks

11 11

Emerging risks







Credit and counterparty risks

12 13 15 15 17

Review of Risk Reduction Measures (“Banking Package”)

Financial risks Insurance risks

9 9 9

Investment Firms (IFs)

Non-financial risks

Non-Performing Loans (NPLs)

Strategic, business and ecosystem risks

Call for Advice to the EBA



Risk Report Pillar III 2018

1 SUMMARY OF RISKS Types of risk

Types of risk 1.1

Given the diversity and developmentsin Groupe BPCE’s activities,risk managementis centered onthe followingmain categories: credit and counterparty risk (including country risk): risk of loss ● resulting from the inability of the Group’s customers, issuers or other counterparties to meet their financial commitments. Credit risk includes counterparty risk related to market transactions (replacementrisk) and securitizationactivities.Moreover,credit risk may be exacerbated by concentration risk, resulting from high exposureto a given risk, to one or more counterparties,or to one or more groups of similarcounterparties. country risk arises when an exposure is liable to be adversely ● affected by changes in the political, economic, social and financial conditions of thecountryof exposure; market risks: risk of loss in value of financial instrumentsresulting ● from changes in market inputs, from the volatility of these inputs or from the correlations between these inputs. Inputs include exchange rates, interest rates and prices of securities (equities, bonds), commodities, derivatives or any other assets, such as real estate assets; liquidityrisk: risk that the Group cannotmeet its cash requirements ● or collateral requirementswhen they fall due and at a reasonable cost; structural interest rate and foreign exchange risks: risk of loss in ● interest income or in the value of a fixed-ratestructuralpositionin the event of changes in interest rates and exchange rates. Structural interest rate and foreign exchange risks are associated with commercial activities and proprietarytransactions;

legal risk: risk of legal, administrative or disciplinary sanction or ● material financial loss arising from a failure to comply with the provisionsgoverning theGroup’sactivity; non-compliancerisk: risk of a legal, administrativeor disciplinary ● penalty, material financial loss or reputational risk arising from a failure to comply with the provisions specific to banking and financial activities (whether these are stipulated by directly applicable national or European laws or regulations), with professionalor ethical standards,or instructionsfrom the executive body, notably issued in accordance with the policies of the supervisory body; operational risk: risk of loss resulting from inadequacies or ● malfunctions attributable to procedures, employees and internal systems (including in particular information systems) or external events, including events with a low probability of occurrence, but with a risk of high loss; risk related to insurance activities: the Group is also exposed to a ● series of risks inherent to this business through its insurance subsidiaries or equity interests. In addition to asset-liability risk management (interest rate, valuation, counterparty and foreign exchange risks), these risks include pricing risk in respect of mortality risk premiums and structural risks related to life and non-life insurance activities, including pandemics, accidents and disasters (earthquakes, hurricanes, industrial accidents, terrorist acts or military conflicts); climate risk: the vulnerability of banking activities to climate ● change, where a distinction can be made between physical risk directly relating to climate change and transition risk associated with effortsto combat climate change.


Risk Report Pillar III 2018

1 SUMMARY OF RISKS Key figures

Key figures 1.2 



0.1 3.7 0.4 3.9 18.5% 19.2% 19.2% 0.1 3.6

0.1 3.8 0.4 4.0 18.5% 19.2% 19.6% 0.1 3.7







12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 Proforma (2)

12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018

T2 Contribution

CET1 ratio

AT1 Contribution









0.3 14.5

0.3 14.4

0.6 14.4

0.4 14.6

15.4 1.6

15.7 1.3







CET1 60.6

CET1 59.3

CET1 62.2

CET1 59.0

CET1 55.5

CET1 55.3












12/31/2018 Proforma (2)

Tier 2 Capital

Cooperative shares


Additional Tier 1 capital

CRR/CRD IV without transitional measures; additional Tier-1 capital takes account of subordinated debt issues that have become ineligible at the phase-out rate in force. (1) Proforma: impact of -38 bp on CET1 ratio and -€1.6 billion on own funds. (2)


Risk Report Pillar III 2018

1 SUMMARY OF RISKS Key figures



Other 8%

Market risk 3% Operational risk 10%

CVA n.s

Retail Banking & Insurance 74%

Credit risk (1) 87%

Corporate & Investment Banking 15%

€392bn 12/31/2018

€392bn 12/31/2018

Asset & Wealth Management 3%

(1) Includingsettlement/deliveryrisk




Cost ofrisk (in basis points)

19  (1) 2.8%


Non-performing/gross outstanding loans  (2) Impairment recognized/non-performing loans  (2) Groupe BPCE’sconsolidated VaR (in millions of euros)







> 110%

> 110%

Liquidityreserves (in billions ofeuros)



(1) (2)


IFRS 9appliedas fromJanuary 1,2018.


Risk Report Pillar III 2018

1 SUMMARY OF RISKS Regulatory changes

Regulatory changes 1.3 

Several major regulatory changes were on the horizon by the end of 2018 onboth the international and European fronts. At the international level, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) finalized its recalibration of the regulatory framework governing market risks – the FundamentalReview of the Trading Book (FRTB) – and announced it would be overseeing the transpositionof the entire Basel III reform, both in terms of content and timeline. The “Finalizationof Basel III” involvesthe revisionof methodsused to measure credit risk, CVA risk and operational risk, as well as the application of an RWA floor. The finalization was published in December 2017 and calls for all reforms, including the FRTB, to take effect in2022.

The BCBS also commented on the risks of leverage ratio window dressing, and stated that it was planning a revision for the purposes of modifying disclosure requirements, particularly for securities financingtransactionsand derivatives. There were also several developmentsat the Europeanlevel, including the review of the Risk ReductionMeasures(RRM) package relating to draft directivesand regulations(CRR2, CRD5, BRRD2,SRMR2)and the introductionof prudentialbackstops to CRR. Other developmentsare in progress, but are unlikely to be completed before the end of the legislative term, such as the review of the EuropeanSupervisoryAuthorities(ESAs), harmonizationof regulations governing investment firms, transposition of the Basel III package (draft CRR3/CRD6) and review of the European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS). Basel III, the deduction of software investments from capital was eliminated (although prudential treatment of software investments will continue to be governed by the EBA), and repo/trade finance/factoring activities will receive more favorable treatment with respectto the NSFR. A compromisewas reached regardingleverageratio windowdressing, a practice labeled unacceptable by the BCBS: the calculation will remain unchanged, with banks simply required to submit additional reports (on average daily) on securities financing transactions(SFTs) and derivativesto supervisors(2019 program). It should be noted that regulatory texts refer to the implementation of EBA RTS (Regulatory Technical Standards) or ITS (Implementing Technical Standards)for certainsubjects.

Review ofRisk Reduction Measures (“Banking Package”) The Austrian Presidency of the European Union submitted a compromise to the Committee of Permanent Representatives (COREPER) and to the ECOFIN Council comprising the Economy and Finance Ministers of the EU Member States on November 30 and December4, respectively.

Pending the plenary vote on the draft CRR2, CRD5, BRRD2 and SRMR on an as-yet unannounceddate, the financial center is expecting to obtain a certain number of positive concessions (still to be confirmed): the Danish Compromise (on the weighting of insurance investmentsby banks) has been extended, fairness was introducedin terms of subordinationrequirements(re: Resolution)between the 37 Top Tier Banks and GSIBs, a reporting requirement was established only with respect to market risk (FRTB) before the finalization of InvestmentFirms (IFs) The Austrian Presidency compromise, aimed at ensuring fair competition between banks and IFs, has been hotly contested not only by the United Kingdom – still at the negotiation table despite Brexit – but also by Germany and Luxembourg. Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) The Commission has proposed a new regulation which would set a mandatory minimum provision for any newly originated loans that become non-performing. Legislators want to move very quickly, notably to finalize efforts to reduce risks in Europe (specificallyto reduce NPL books), thus paving the way for progress on the European Deposit Insurance Scheme

France’s position is that the text should not be adopted until Brexit negotiations have been finalized.

(EDIS). As a result, the proposed regulation on NPLs is likely to be adopted in its current form (or close): the Council and Parliament wish to clarify the principle of line-by-line application for each transaction (and not at book level) and the implementationof the text at the effective date (as opposed to retroactively at the

publication date of the draft version).


Risk Report Pillar III 2018

1 SUMMARY OF RISKS Regulatory changes

Call for Advice to the EBA On May 4, the European Commissionissued a Call for Advice to the EBA, seeking technical advice to assess the potential impact of the various elements of the Basel package of reforms on the European banking sector, determine any possible implementation challenges, and propose adjustments to inputs or methodologies ( e.g. on the application of the output floor or treatment of specialized lending) where applicable. In response, the EBA shall prepare a draft report in early 2019 and submit afinal report to theEuropeanCommission inJune 2019. To that end, the EBA called on banks to complete two surveys: a quantitative survey (June 2018) and a qualitative survey (January11, 2019). BPCE considersCRR3/CRD6(transpositionof Basel IV) and EDIS to be the priorities for 2019. There is a strong risk in France that the Governor of the Banque de Francewill recommenda 25-bp increasein the countercyclicalcapital buffer (to 50 bp) to the Economy Minister, applicable to all French exposures asfrom July 1, 2019.

In addition, the Financial Sector Assessment Process (FSAP) required by the IMF every five years was initiatedin June 2018 and will end in July 2019. The purpose of the process is to assess the strength and stability of the French financial system as a whole. The FSAP will be based on liquidity and solvency stress tests conducted on 7 French banks (including BPCE) using prudential data (COREP, FINREP, etc.) and public information. The IMF takes a top-down approach to stress tests. Banks are not asked to contributetechnically by way of additional reports. Interviews were held with the banks in December 2018 and on-site audits willbe performed inMarch 2019. Deliverables willbe discussed between March and July 2019. The report will then be submitted to the IMF Board for approval. The Directorate General of the French Treasury is in charge of coordinatingthe process between the French authorities. It plans to take the opportunity to promote the French legislative and supervisory framework.


Risk Report Pillar III 2018


Main risks and emerging risks

Main risks and emerging risks 1.4

Main risks Credit and counterpartyrisk: at € 1.3 billion in 2018, Groupe BPCE’s cost of risk decreased 6.1% compared to 2017. Average annual cost of risk (expressedin basis points versus customeroutstandingsat the start of the period) reacheda record low of 19 bp in 2018, down 1 bp from 2017. Market risks: market risk indicators are monitored and analyzed at various position aggregation levels, giving an overview of total exposure and risk consumption by risk factor. VaR and stress indicators were kept very low for the Group in 2018 (VaR of € 14.2 million at end-2018 and stress test at - € 95 million for the most adverse scenario). Groupe BPCE places great importanceon anticipatingand managing emergingrisks in today’s constantly changing environment. The international geopolitical environment is continuously under watch in light of the political instability and budget imbalances affecting certain geographic regions. In Europe, the rise of populism in many countries, tensions in Italy over the sustainability of the country’sdebt, and post-Brexitnegotiationswith the United Kingdom have brought risks to bear on the stability of the EuropeanUnion and its currency, generating risks forthe Group’sexposures. Ultra-low interest rates are weighing on the profitability of commercialbanking activities,due to the predominanceof fixed-rate home loans, and on life insurance activities as well. Interest rate hikes, already under way in the United States, hold great significance for GroupeBPCE, calling for preparationand diversificationof funding sources. Emerging risks

Operational risk: considering the nature of its businesses, 51% of Groupe BPCE’s operating losses fall into the Basel category “execution, delivery and process management”. Liquidity, interest rate and foreign exchange risks: Groupe BPCE maintaineda strong liquidity position over the course of 2018 thanks to robust coverage of stress scenarios. At December 31, 2018, liquidity reserves covered 160% of all short-term funding as well as short-termmaturities of MLT debt. Groupe BPCE also conducted an “Economic Value of Equity” review to ensure it would be able to incorporate future regulatory changes involving interest rate risk in the banking book. With the increasing digitization of the economy and banking transactionsat Group level, cyber-risksare on the rise for information systems and customersalike, calling for heightenedvigilancein order to anticipate and guard against hacking. Misconduct risk is monitored with operational risks and has been written into Compliance Charters, the Group code of conduct and ethics, and conflicts of interest managementsystems at all levels of Groupe BPCE. Regulatorydevelopmentsare another area of permanentsupervision, as the banking industry is subject to increasinglystrict requirements and close regulatory supervision. Climate change and Corporate Social Responsibility are a growing concern for financial institutions, as addressed in their risk managementpolicies(especiallyat BPCE), but also from a commercial standpoint inregards to demanding customer expectations.


Risk Report Pillar III 2018

1 SUMMARY OF RISKS Risk factors

Risk factors 1.5

The banking and financial environment in which Groupe BPCE operatesis exposed to numerousrisks, calling for the implementation of an increasingly strict, demanding policy to control and manage these risks. Some of the risks to which GroupeBPCE is exposedare set out below. However,this is not a comprehensivelist of all of the risks incurredby

Groupe BPCE in the course of conducting its business or given the environmentin which it operates.The risks presentedbelow are those identified to date as significant and specific to Groupe BPCE, and which are liable to have a material adverse impact on its business, financial position and/or results.

Credit and counterparty risks

DEFAULT AND COUNTERPARTY RISKS A substantial increase in asset impairment expenses recorded on Groupe BPCE’s outstanding loans and receivables may have an adverse impact on its results and financial position. In the course of its lending activities, Groupe BPCE regularly recognizes charges for asset impairments in order to reflect, if necessary, actual or potential losses on its portfolio of loans and receivables. Such impairments are expensed under “Cost of risk”. Groupe BPCE’s total charges for asset impairmentsare based on the Group’s measurementof past losses on loans, volumes and types of loans granted, industry standards, loans in arrears, economic conditions and other factors associated with the recoverability of various types of loans. While Groupe BPCE makes every effort to set aside a sufficientlevel of provisionsfor asset impairmentexpenses,its lending activities may cause it in the future to have to increase its expensesfor losses on loans, due to a rise in non-performingloans or for other reasons, such as the deteriorationof market conditions or factors affecting certain countries. Any substantial increase in charges for losses on loans, material change in Groupe BPCE’s estimateof the risk of loss associatedwith its portfolioof unimpaired loans, or any loss on loans exceedingpast impairmentexpenses,could have an adverse impact on Groupe BPCE’s results and financial position. The financial strength and performance of other financial institutions and market players may have an unfavorable impact on Groupe BPCE. Groupe BPCE’s ability to execute transactionsmay be affected by the financial strength of other financial institutions and market players. Financial institutions are closely interconnected owing to their trading, clearing, counterpartyand financingoperations.A default by a sector player, or even mere rumors or concerns regarding one or more financial institutions or the financial industry in general, may lead to a general contractionin market liquidity and subsequentlyto losses or further defaults in the future. Groupe BPCE is directly or indirectly exposed to various financial counterparties, such as investment service providers, commercial or investment banks, clearing houses and CCPs, mutual funds, hedge funds, and other institutional clients, with which it regularly conducts transactions. The default or failure of any such counterpartiesmay have an adverse impact on Groupe BPCE’s financial position. Moreover, Groupe BPCE may be exposed to the risk associatedwith the growing involvement

of operators subject to little or no regulation in its business sector and to the emergence of new products subject to little or no regulation (including, in particular, crowdfunding and trading platforms). This risk would be exacerbated if the assets held as collateral by Groupe BPCE could not be sold or if their selling price would not cover all of Groupe BPCE’s exposureto loans or derivatives in default, or in the event a key market operator such as a CCP defaults. COUNTRY RISKS Groupe BPCE may be vulnerable to political, macroeconomic and financial environments or to specific circumstances in its countries of operation. Some Groupe BPCE entities are exposed to country risk, which is the risk that economic,financial,politicalor social conditionsin a foreign country (particularlyin countrieswhere the Group conductsbusiness) may affect their financial interests. A significant change in the political or macroeconomicenvironmentof such countries or regions may generateadditionalexpensesor reduce profits earned by Groupe BPCE. Natixis operatesworldwide,includingin parts of the world that are developing,commonlyreferredto as emergingmarkets.In light of these operationsin emergingmarkets(particularlyin Russia and other Central and Eastern European countries, as well as Africa and the MediterraneanBasin), any material adverse change in the political, macroeconomic or financial environment of these countries may negatively impact the results and financial position of Groupe BPCE. In the past, many countries classified as emerging have experienced serious economic and financial instability, including devaluations of their local currencies, currency exchange and capital controls, and weak or negative economic growth. It is therefore likely that major uncertaintieswill continueto weigh on these variousmarkets,making them an ongoingrisk for GroupeBPCE. Thoughlimited,GroupeBPCE’s activities and revenues from operations and transactions conducted outside the European Union and the United States are exposed to a risk of loss due to unfavorable political, economic and legal developments, in particular currency fluctuations, social instability, changes in government or central bank policies, expropriation, nationalization, asset confiscation and changes to laws governing property rights. Capital markets activities conducted in emerging countries represent a considerable percentage of Groupe BPCE’s net income and may be more volatile than those conductedin developed countries given their higher exposure to the specific risks addressed above.


Risk Report Pillar III 2018

1 SUMMARY OF RISKS Risk factors

Financial risks

LIQUIDITY RISK Groupe BPCE is dependent on its access to funding and other sources of liquidity, which may be limited for reasons outside its control. Access to short-termand long term fundingis critical for the conduct of Groupe BPCE’s business. Unsecured sources of funding for Groupe BPCE include deposits, issues of long-term debt and short/medium-termnotes, banks loans and credit lines. Groupe BPCE also uses funding secured in particular by reverse repurchase agreements.If GroupeBPCE were unable to access the securedand/or unsecured debt market at conditions deemed acceptable,or incurred an unexpected outflow of cash or collateral, including a significant decline in customer deposits, its liquiditymay be negativelyaffected. Furthermore,if Groupe BPCE were unable to maintain a satisfactory level of customer deposits ( e.g. in the event its competitors offer higher rates of return on deposits), Groupe BPCE may be forced to obtain funding at higher rates, which would reduce its net interest income and results. Groupe BPCE’s liquidity may also be affected by unforeseen events outside its control, such as general market disruptions, operational hardships affecting third parties, negative opinions on financial services in general or on the short/long-term outlook for Groupe BPCE, changes in Groupe BPCE’s credit rating, or even the perception of the position of Groupe BPCE or other financial institutionsamong market operators. Groupe BPCE’s access to the capital markets, and the cost of long-term unsecured funding, are directly related to changes in its credit spreads on the bond and credit derivatives markets, which it can neither predict nor control. Liquidity constraints may have a material adverse impact on Groupe BPCE’s financial position, results and ability to meet its obligations to its counterparties. INTEREST RATE RISK Significant changes in interest rates may have an adverse impact on Groupe BPCE’s net banking income and profitability. Net interestincome earned by Groupe BPCE during a given period has a material influence on net banking income and profitabilityfor that period. In addition, material changes in credit spreads may influence Groupe BPCE’s earnings. Interest rates are highly sensitive to various factors that may be outside the control of Groupe BPCE. In the last

decade, interest rates have tended to be low but are on the rise, and Groupe BPCE may not be able to immediatelypass on the impacts of this change. Changes in market interest rates may have an impact on the interest rate applied to interest-bearing assets, different from those of interest rates paid on interest-bearingliabilities.Any adverse change in the yield curve may reduce net interest income from associated lending and funding activities and thus negatively impact Groupe BPCE’sprofitability. MARKET RISKS Market fluctuations and volatility expose Groupe BPCE, in particular Natixis, to losses in its trading and investment activities, which may adversely impact Group’s BPCE’s results and financial position. With respect to its trading and investment activities, Natixis holds positions in the bond, currency, commodity and equity markets, as well as in unlistedsecurities,real estate assets and other asset classes (this is also true of other GroupeBPCE entities,but to a lesser extent). These positions may be affected by volatility on the markets (especiallythe financial markets), i.e. the degree of price fluctuations over a given period on a given market, regardlessof the levels on the market in question. Volatilitymay also trigger losses on a vast range of other trading and hedging products used by Natixis, including swaps, futures, options and structured products, if prices or price variations are lower or higher than Natixis’ estimates. As Natixis holds assets or has net long positionsin these markets,any market correctionwould lead to losses stemming from a decrease in the value of these net long positions. Conversely, as Natixis has disposedof assets which it does not own or in which it held net short positionson these markets,any reboundin these marketsmay expose it to losses due to measurestaken to hedge these net short positions with long positions in a bullish market. Natixis may, on occasion, implement a trading strategy involving a long position in one asset and a short positionin another,fromwhich it intends to generatenet gains on the opposing change in the relative value of both assets. However,if the relative value of both assets records the same change ( i.e. both relative values increase or decrease), or they change to an extent not anticipatedby Natixis,or for which no hedgingtransaction has been set up, the company could record a loss on its arbitrage positions.If material,these lossesmay weigh on the results of Natixis’ transactionsand financialposition,and thus on GroupeBPCE’s results and financial position.


Risk Report Pillar III 2018

1 SUMMARY OF RISKS Risk factors

The hedging strategies implemented by Groupe BPCE do not eliminate all risk of loss. Groupe BPCE may incur losses if any of the different hedging instrumentsor strategiesthat it uses to hedge its exposureto various kinds of risks prove ineffective. Many of its strategies are based on historic market trends and correlations.For example, if Groupe BPCE holds a long position in an asset, it may hedge the risk by taking a short position in another asset whose past performance offsets the changes in the long position.However,Groupe BPCE may only have a partial hedge, or these strategiesmay not effectivelymitigateits total risk exposure in all market configurations or may not be effective against all types of future risks. Any unforeseentrend in the markets may also reduce the effectiveness of Groupe BPCE’s hedging strategies. Moreover, the accounting recognition of gains and losses from ineffective hedges may increase the volatility of results published by Groupe BPCE. Changes in the fair value of Groupe BPCE’s portfolios of securities and derivative products, and its own debt, are liable to have an adverse impact on the carrying amount of these assets and liabilities, and as a result on Groupe BPCE’s net income and equity. The carrying amount of Groupe BPCE’s securities, derivative products and other types of assets, and of its own debt, is adjusted (in the balance sheet) at the date of each new financial statement. These adjustmentsare predominantlybased on changes in the fair value of assets and liabilities during an accounting period, i.e. changes taken to profit or loss or directly to other comprehensiveincome. Changes recorded in the income statement, but not offset by corresponding changes in the fair value of other assets, have an impact on net banking income and thus on net income. All fair value adjustments have an impact on equity and thus on Groupe BPCE’s capital adequacy ratios. The fact that fair value adjustments are recorded over an accountingperiod does not mean that additionaladjustments will not benecessaryin subsequent periods. Groupe BPCE’s revenues from brokerage and other activities associated with fee and commission income may decrease in the event of market downturns. A market downturn is liable to lower the volume of transactions (particularly financial services and securities transactions) executed by Groupe BPCE entities for their customers and as a market maker, thus reducing net banking income from these activities. A market downturn is liable to lower the volume of transactions executed by Groupe BPCE for its customers and the corresponding fees, thus reducing revenues earned from these activities. Furthermore, as management fees invoiced by Groupe BPCE entities to their customers are generally based on the value or performance of portfolios, any decline in the markets causing the value of these portfolios to decrease or generating an increase in the amount of redemptions would reduce the revenues earned by these entities through the distribution of mutual funds or other investment products (for the Caisses d’Epargne and the Banque Populaire banks) or throughasset managementactivities(for Natixis).

Even if there is no market decline, in the event mutual funds and other Groupe BPCE products underperformthe market, redemptions may increase and inflows decrease as a result, with a potential corresponding impact on revenues from the Group’s asset management business, which could adversely impact the financial position of Groupe BPCE. TRADING AND BANKING BOOK ILLIQUIDITY RISKS Extended market declines may reduce market liquidity and thus make it difficult to sell certain assets, in turn generating material losses. In some of Groupe BPCE’s activities, extended market trends (in particulardownturnsin asset prices) may reduce the level of business on the market or its liquidity. Such trends may result in material losses if Groupe BPCE is unable to unwind positions whose value is falling when necessary and incurs continuous losses on these positions. Thismay bethe case, forexample, forassets heldby Groupe BPCE in markets that naturally tend to be illiquid. The valuation of these assets, which are not traded on stock exchangesor other public markets ( e.g. derivatives traded between banks), is determined using models rather than official quoted prices. Groupe BPCE has high exposures to these assets and, given the number of open positions, any extended market decline may generate material losses. It is difficult to monitor declines in the prices of such assets and, consequently, Groupe BPCE runs the risk of incurring unexpected losses onhigh volumes of OTCderivatives. affecting its profitability and business continuity. Credit ratings have a significantimpact on the liquidity of BPCE and its affiliates active in the financial markets (including Natixis). A ratings downgrademay affect the liquidity and competitive position of BPCE or Natixis, increase borrowingcosts, limit access to financial markets and trigger obligations under some bilateral contracts governing trading, derivative and collateralizedfunding transactions, thus affecting its profitability and business continuity. BPCE and Natixis’ unsecured long-term funding cost is directly linked to their respectivecredit spreads(the yield spread over and above the yield on government issues with the same maturity that is paid to bond investors), which in turn are heavily dependent on their ratings. An increase in credit spreads may materially raise BPCE and Natixis’ fundingcost. Shifts in credit spreads are correlatedto the market and sometimes subject to unforeseen and highly volatile changes. Credit spreads are also influenced by market perception of issuer solvency. Moreover, credit spreads may be caused by changes in the price of credit default swaps backed by certain BPCE orNatixis debt securities. This price may in turn be influenced by the credit quality of these bonds and a number of other market factors over which BPCE and Natixis have nocontrol. CREDIT SPREAD RISKS BPCE must maintain high credit ratings to avoid


Risk Report Pillar III 2018

1 SUMMARY OF RISKS Risk factors

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK Exchange rate fluctuations may adversely impact Groupe BPCE’s net banking income or net income. Groupe BPCE entities carry out a large share of their activities in currencies other than the euro, in particular the US dollar, and changes in exchange rates may adversely affect their net banking Insurance risks A deterioration in market conditions, and in particular excessive up and down movements in interest rates, could have a material adverse impact on Groupe BPCE’s life insurance business and net income. The main risk to which Groupe BPCE insurance subsidiaries are exposed in their life insurance business is market risk. Exposure to market risk relates mainly to capital guarantee and return commitments oneuro-denominated investment funds. Among market risks, interest rate risk is structurally significant for Natixis, as its general funds consist primarily of bonds. Interest rate fluctuations may: in the case of higher rates: reduce the competitiveness of the ● euro-denominated offer (by making new investments more attractive) and trigger waves of redemptionson unfavorableterms with unrealizedcapital losses onoutstandingbonds; in the case of lower rates: in the long term, make the return on ● general funds too low to enable them to meet their capital guarantees. Due to the allocationof the general funds, a wideningof spreads and a fall in the equity marketscould also have a materialadverse impact on the resultsof Groupe BPCE’slife insurance business.

income and results. The fact that Groupe BPCE records costs in currencies other than the euro only partly offsets the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on net banking income. Natixis is particularlyexposed to fluctuationsbetween the euro and US dollar, as a major share of its net banking income and operating income is generatedin the United States. However, these transactionsmay not fully offset the impact of unfavorable exchange rates on operating income. Insome cases, they may even amplify their effect.

A mismatch between the insurer’s projected loss ratio and the actual benefits paid by Groupe BPCE to policyholders could have a material adverse impact on its non-life insurance business, results and financial position. The main risk to which Groupe BPCE’s insurance subsidiaries are exposed in their non-life insurance business is underwritingrisk. This risk results from a mismatchbetween i) claims actually recorded and benefits actually paid as compensation for these claims and ii) the assumptions used by the subsidiaries to set the prices for their insurance products and to establish technical reserves for potential compensation. Groupe BPCE uses both its own experience and industry data to develop estimates of future policy benefits, including information used in pricing insurance products and establishing the related actuarial liabilities. However, there can be no assurance that actual experience will match these estimates, and unforeseen risks such as pandemics or natural disasters could result in higher-than-expected payments topolicyholders. To the extent that the actual benefits paid by Groupe BPCE to policyholders are higher than the underlying assumptions used in initially establishingthe future policy benefit reserves, or if events or trends were to cause Groupe BPCE to change the underlying assumptions,Groupe BPCE may be exposed to greater-than-expected liabilities, which may adversely affect its non-life insurancebusiness, results and financialposition. be harmed by inappropriate employee behavior, fraud, misappropriation of funds or other misconduct committed by financial sector participants to which Groupe BPCE is exposed, any decrease, restatement or correction of financial results, or any legal ruling or regulatory action with a potentially unfavorable outcome. Any such harm to Groupe BPCE’s reputation may have a negative Ineffectivemanagementof reputationrisk could also increaseGroupe BPCE’s legal risk, the number of legal disputes in which it is involved and the amount of damages claimed, or may expose the Group to regulatory sanctions. impact onits profitabilityand business outlook.

Non-financial risks

LEGAL AND REPUTATIONAL RISKS Reputational and legal risks could unfavorably impact Groupe BPCE’s profitability and business outlook. Groupe BPCE’s reputationis of paramountimportancewhen it comes to attractingand retaining customers.Use of inappropriatemeans to promote and market Group products and services, inadequate management of potential conflicts of interest, legal and regulatory requirements, ethics issues, money laundering laws, economic sanctions,data securitypolicies,and sales and tradingpracticescould adversely affect Groupe BPCE’s reputation. Its reputation could also


Risk Report Pillar III 2018

1 SUMMARY OF RISKS Risk factors

Unforeseen events may interrupt Groupe BPCE’s operations and generate losses and additional costs Unforeseen events, such as a serious natural disaster, climate risk-related events (physical risk directly associated with climate change), pandemics, attacks or any other emergency situation can cause an abrupt interruption in the operations of Groupe BPCE entities, affecting in particular the Group’s core business lines (liquidity,paymentinstruments,securitiesservices,loans to individual and corporate customers,and fiduciary services) and trigger material losses, if the Group is not covered or not sufficiently covered by an insurancepolicy. These losses could relate to materialassets, financial assets, market positions or key personnel, and have a direct and potentiallymaterial impact on Groupe BPCE’s net income. Moreover, such events may also disrupt Groupe BPCE’s infrastructure,or that of a third party with which Groupe BPCE does business, and generate additional costs (relating in particular to the cost of re-housing affected personnel) and increase Groupe BPCE’s costs (such as insurance premiums).Such events may invalidate insurance coverage of certainrisks and thus increase Groupe BPCE’s overall levelof risk. EXECUTION, DELIVERY AND PROCESS MANAGEMENT RISKS The failure or inadequacy of Groupe BPCE’s risk management policies, procedures and strategies may expose it to unidentified or unexpected risks which may trigger losses. The risk managementtechniquesand strategies employed by Groupe BPCE may not succeed in effectivelylimiting its exposure to all types of market environments or all kinds of risks, and may even prove ineffective for some risks that the Group was unable to identify or anticipate. Furthermore,Groupe BPCE’s risk managementtechniques and strategiesmay not effectivelylimit its exposureto risk and do not guaranteethat overall risk will actually be lowered. These techniques and strategies may prove ineffective against certain types of risk, in particular risks that Groupe BPCE had not already identified or anticipated,given that the tools used by Groupe BPCE to develop risk management procedures are based on assessments, analyses and assumptions that may prove inaccurate. Some of the indicators and qualitative tools used by Groupe BPCE to manage risk are based on the observation of past market performance. To measure risk exposures, the heads of risk management carry out a statistical analysis of these observations. There is no guaranteethat these tools or indicatorswill be capable of predicting future exposure to risk. For example, risk exposures may stem from factors that Groupe BPCE may not have anticipated or correctly assessed in its statistical models or from unexpected or unprecedentedshifts in the market. This would limit Groupe BPCE’s risk management capability. As a result, losses incurred by Groupe BPCE may be higher than those estimated on the basis of historic measurements. Moreover, the Group’s quantitative models cannot factor in all risks. Some risks are subject to a more qualitative analysis, which may prove inadequateand thus expose Groupe BPCE to material unexpected losses. In addition, while no significant problemhas been identifiedto date, the risk managementsystemsare subject to the risk of operational failure, including fraud.

IT SECURITY AND INFORMATION SYSTEM RISK Any interruption or failure of the information systems belonging to Groupe BPCE or a third party may lead to losses, including commercial losses. As is the case for the majority of its competitors, Groupe BPCE is highly dependent on information and communicationsystems, as a large number of increasingly complex transactions are processed in the course of its activities.Any failure, interruptionor malfunctionin these systems may cause errors or interruptionsin the systems used to manage customer accounts, general accounts, deposits, transactions and/or to process loans. For example, if Groupe BPCE’s informationsystemswere to malfunction,even for a short period, the affected entities would be unable to meet their customers’ needs in time and could thus lose transaction opportunities. Similarly, a temporary failure in Groupe BPCE’s information systems despite back-up systems and contingency plans could also generate substantial data recovery and verification costs, or even a decline in its proprietaryactivities if, for example, such a failure were to occur during the implementationof a hedging transaction.The inability of Groupe BPCE’s systems to adapt to an increasing volume of transactions may also limit its ability to develop its activities. Groupe BPCE is also exposedto the risk of malfunctionor operational failure by one of its clearing agents, foreign exchange markets, clearing houses, custodians or other financial intermediaries or external service providers that it uses to carry out or facilitate its securities transactions. As interconnectivity with its customers continues to grow, Groupe BPCE may also become increasingly exposed to the risk of the operational malfunction of customer informationsystems. Groupe BPCE’s informationand communication systems, and those of its customers, service providers and counterparties, may also be subject to failures or interruptions resulting from cybercriminalor cyberterroristacts. For example, as a result of its digital transformation, Groupe BPCE’s information systems are becoming increasingly open to the outside (cloud computing, big data, etc.) and many of its processes are gradually going digital. Use of the Internet and connected devices (tablets, smartphones, apps used on tablets and mobiles, etc.) by employees and customers is on the rise, increasing the number of channels serving as potential vectors for attacks and disruptions, and the number of devices and applications vulnerable to attacks and disruptions.Consequently,the softwareand hardwareused by Groupe BPCE’s employeesand externalagents are constantlyand increasingly subject to cyberthreats. Groupe BPCE cannot guarantee that such malfunctions or interruptions in its own systems or in third party systems will not occur or that, if they do occur, that they will be adequately resolved. Any interruption or failure of the information systems belonging to Groupe BPCE or third parties may generate losses (including commercial losses) due to the disruption of its operations and the possibility that its customers may turn to other financial institutions during and/or after any such interruptions or failures.


Risk Report Pillar III 2018

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