NATIXIS - Universal registration document and financial report 2019

4 OVERVIEW OF THE FISCAL YEAR Outlook for Natixis

Outlook for Natixis 4.6

2019 closed on a positive note in terms of the global trade outlook: the risk of a hard Brexit was ruled out, and the US and China reached a partial agreement that was then signed on January 15, 2020. While this progress does not eliminate all the uncertainties (especially the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on global growth and Natixis' businesses, which has yet to be assessed), such progress should bring about a cyclical recovery. Survey data at the beginning of 2020 indicate improvement in the manufacturing sector, which can vary in strength (weak in the euro zone, robust in the US) depending on the region. Combined with what is expected to remain a loose policy mix (particularly as central banks maintain the status quo) and a relatively tight job market, this cyclical recovery will support growth over the next quarters. We can therefore expect to see a 2.5% increase in GDP in the US in 2020. With the risk of escalation in the US-China trade war now limited, China can expect its growth to slow to 5.7%, which has more to do with structural factors than external trade risks. Recovery in the euro zone will be relatively slack in the first part of the year but is expected to gradually firm up (0.8% expected in 2020 after 1.2% in 2019). France should outperform the euro zone with stable growth in the region of 1.2%, while Germany will see its second consecutive year of weak growth (0.5%). In 2020, Natixis will complete the implementation of the New Dimension strategic plan to give clients a broader range of high added-value solutions through three powerful initiatives: deepening the transformation of the business model that successfully began under the New Frontier plan; allocating a significant portion of

investments to digital technologies; and differentiating itself by taking the lead in areas where Natixis’ teams are recognized for their exceptional expertise. All this will take place in a persistently volatile economic and geopolitical setting, especially in light of the coronavirus and its impact on the global economy, despite signs of improvement in the second half of 2019 after 12 lackluster months. This context and volatility make it difficult to predict whether all the New Dimension 2020 goals will be achieved. The plan will come to an end this year and will be succeeded by a new strategic plan that will be presented, together with new medium-term goals, by the end of 2020. As a reminder, the strategic priorities for Natixis’ various divisions are broken down as follows: Asset & Wealth Management: Confirming our position as a world V leader in active investment strategies in terms of size, profitability and capacity for innovation; Corporate & Investment Banking: becoming a benchmark bank in V four key sectors (energy and natural resources, aerospace, infrastructure, real estate and hospitality), with a reputation for offering innovative solutions; Insurance: consolidating our position as a top-tier insurer in V France; Payments: becoming a pure play in the European payments V industry and accelerating its digital transformation.

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NATIXIS UNIVERSAL REGISTRATION DOCUMENT 2019