NATIXIS // 2021 Universal Registration Document
COMMENTS OF THE FISCAL YEAR Highlights of 2021
The USD 10-year rate remained within a range of [1.20 - 1.75]% for most of the year. Conversely, the EUR 10-year rate appreciated by more than 60bp, from -0.29% to 0.33% and has not seen negative territory since September. On the slope side, we can note the drop in the USD 5s/30s (5-year/30-yearswap) below 35bp, and the high volatility of the EUR 10s/30s (10-year/30-year swap), which fluctuated between 10 and 66bp this year, ending the year at 40bp. 4.1.1.3 2021 ended with an appreciation of the dollar. However, the continued depreciation that began in 2020 was expected, in anticipation of a long monetary status quo after the COVID-19 crisis. In the first half, the dollar remained relatively stable in the face of the Fed’s very accommodating rhetoric and fears related to the epidemic. Subsequently, the dollar recovered after the Fed hardened its tone in June 2021, in response to the strong economic recovery and rising inflation to historically high levels. In September, the Fed confirmed its intention to start reducing its asset purchases (i.e. tapering) and raise its key interest rates in 2022. In November, the Fed began its tapering, which it increased in December, while announcing strong forecasts for key rate increases for 2022. The dollar appreciated strongly against most currencies in this environment. For its part, volatility decreased significantly during the first part of 2021 before recovering at the end of the year with the desire of central banks to normalize their monetary policy more quickly than expected. In this context, the EUR/USD remained stable at around 1.20 in the first half-year 2021 before dropping significantly starting in June. It continued to correct to 1.13 throughout the second half of 2021. The stabilization of the EUR/USD at around 1.13 at the end of the year was also the result of the ECB’s desire to normalize its monetary policy. It announced the end of its PEPP asset purchase program (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) linked to the pandemic in March 2022 and some members of the ECB are calling for a rate hike from the end of 2022. The GBP appreciatedstrongly in the first quarter by a catch-upeffect, after the signing of the trade agreement with the European Union at the end of 2020 and in anticipation of a rate hike by the BoE. Thereafter, the EUR/GBP stabilized until September at around 0.86. From September onwards, the BoE hardened its tone due to the sharp rise in inflation, bringing the EUR/GBP towards 0.84: it notably surprised the market by raising its base rate to 0.25% when inflation reached 5.1% year-on-year in November. The EUR/GBP finally tested a low of 0.835 at the end of December, despite the slowdown in economic activity and the widening of the current account deficit to 3.3% of GDP in the third quarter. The JPY depreciated sharply against the USD to a level of 115, in response to the divergence in monetary policy between a restrictive Fed and a still very accommodatingBOJ. Thus, the sharp rise in US long rates contributedto the weaknessof the JPY. Against the EUR, the JPY also depreciatedto a high of 134 at the end of May before returning to around 130 at year-end. Finally, we noted the outperformanceof the CNY throughout the year up to 6.35 against the USD. The CNY appreciatedunder the effect of the significant inflow of capital, attracted by the attractive yields of Chinese financial assets, and despite the monetary easing of the PBoC to support Chinese growth. Foreign exchange
Monetary and fiscal policies In the first part of 2021, the consensus was for a temporary impact of the main factors fueling inflation. During the year, some central banks gradually revised their reading of inflation. And at the end of the year, the Fed indicated its intention to exit its “quantitativeeasing” program, then reduce its balance sheet, before increasing rates in 2022. The ECB, with a more cautious reading of inflationary factors, announced its intention to gradually reduce its net asset purchases as part of the PEPP linked to the pandemic, but also to strengthen its purchasing possibilities under the normal Asset Purchase Program (APP). Other central banks (Canada, Australia, etc.) had already initiated the end of asset purchase programs with the reduction of balance sheets but also rate increases. Monetary policies, however, have remained extremely accommodating overall, offering significant support to economic activity. Budget policies remained expansive in 2021 despite the reduction in spending to combat COVID-19. Budget deficits in the United States and the euro zone remain at historicallyhigh levels, but show smaller imbalances than in 2020. Governments continued to support programs for affected sectors (short-time working program to preserve jobs) and supported infrastructure and investment spending. 4.1.1.2 The first quarter was marked by a general rise in long-term rates in developed countries, particularly in the United States, while the theme of reflation was deployed following the introduction of vaccination coverage, the outcome of elections in the United States and the strong recovery of global supply chains. Europe was relatively spared. The curves, excluding the Euro, reached their peak in terms of long rates and slope at the end of March. The rest of the year was marked by a sharp flatteningof yield curves. The second quarter was the opposite of the previous one, with a monotonous and uninterrupted decline in the majority of long-term rates in developed economies, while investment plans were revised downwards and growth expectationswere for a sharp slowdown for 2022. The summer was marked by a rally in sovereign debt in line with the second quarter. The month of September was marked by a significant sell-off due to uncertaintiesrelated to inflation, particularly in Europe: central banks were almost unanimously in favor of further monetary tightening, as was the case for the reduction schedule of net asset purchases (tapering) drafted at the end of September by the Fed. At that time, the ECB maintained the end of the PEPP program linked to the pandemic for March 2022, but nevertheless decided to reduce its pace of asset purchases: far from an assumed reduction like the Bank of England (BoE), it was only a “tapering” technique or “recalibration”, as indicated by Christine Lagarde on September 9, 2021. Yield curves flattened sharply in the fourth quarter. The G10 central banks adopted a more restrictive stance: hike in rates (BoE), hike announcements (Fed) and reduced asset purchases (ECB). Sales, marked in volume, took place on the short end of the curves with aggressive expectations of rate increases (nearly four increases in the United States, one in the euro zone). At the same time, the long part of the yield curves was fueled by health and regulatory needs and the relative difficulty of finding collateral, coupled with rates under downward pressure. Rates
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NATIXIS UNIVERSAL REGISTRATION DOCUMENT 2021
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