NATIXIS // 2021 Universal Registration Document

4 COMMENTS OF THE FISCAL YEAR Highlights of 2021

Highlights of 2021 4.1

Macro-economic context 4.1.1 Growth and monetary policies 4.1.1.1 The evolution of the economy in the main geographical areas was punctuated throughout the year by successive waves of COVID-19 contamination. The arrival of vaccines at the beginning of the year, widely distributed in developed countries, reduced the impact of the epidemic on economic activity in 2021. American growth was very strong from the start of the year, supported by less restrictive health measures than in other regions of the world. The Trump then Biden budget plans largely supported growth via domestic demand and particularly private consumption. The United States returned to its pre-crisis level of GDP in the first quarter of 2021 with quarter-on-quartergrowth of around 1.5% (Q/Q) in the first half-year. With the dissipation of the effects of the stimulus plans and the end of the catch-up in private consumption, the pace of GDP growth slowed to 0.6% Q/Q during the third quarter. The retail, catering and transport branches, subject to the strongest social interactions, remain nearly four points below their pre-pandemic level. Industry or construction, also retain a slower catch-up rate due to shortages of intermediate goods or construction materials. Finally, despite sustained growth, the labor market has not yet returned to its pre-crisis levels. In the euro zone, the less favorable health situation led to stricter restrictions in early 2021. In the first quarter, GDP fell by -0.2% Q/Q, before a rebound of +2.2% in the second quarter and in the third quarter of 2021. The main countries are affected according to the structure of their added value. Germany, which is industrial, suffered more from shortages of components and semiconductors encountered in the automotive industry (virtual stagnation of industrial production). Countries more focused on services, particularly tourism such as France, Spain and Italy, suffered from restrictions affecting travel within Europe but also internationally, particularly from the United States and Asia. From the spring, the rebound in domestic demand allowed growth to pick up. Private consumption grew by an average of 4% Q/Q during the second and third quarters of 2021. Aid and support plans aimed at preserving employment in sectors affected by health constraintshave helped to preserve household incomes. Investment benefited from a relatively healthy financial situation and flexible monetary and financial conditions (very accommodating monetary policy by the ECB). Investment, which is expected to have increased by an average of 3.7% over the full year of 2021, also benefited from the first disbursements of European funds under the Next Generation EU program (relaunch of infrastructure development, digitization and energy transition projects).

The contributionof foreign trade was relatively neutral. Exports grew slightly faster than imports, in a complex international environment. The upturn in demand for goods and the need to catch up with the figures for 2020 were offset by various shortages of intermediate goods, bottlenecks, the rise in energy prices and transport costs. After a positive first half of 2021, international exchanges slowed down in the second half of the year. In the emerging world, China, which peaked at +18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021 slowed down thereafter (+5.1% in the third quarter of 2021). It faced structural problems prior to the pandemic: corporate debt, real estate risk, demographic aging and business model transition. In addition, the so-called “zero COVID” strategy led to strict and recurring lockdowns of large cities or regions, which ultimately disrupted activity. India, for its part, was hit hard by the Delta variant, which led to a very sharp slowdown in growth until early 2021 (1.6% in the first quarter of 2021). Russia also experienced a very difficult first quarter with a decline in GDP of -0.4% year-on-year. After a strong rebound in the second quarter of 2021 due to a catch-up effect, the growth rate gradually slowed down during the second half of 2021. Finally, Brazil, despite structural and political difficulties and very high exposure to COVID-19, was expected to survive 2021 relatively well in terms of growth (+6.3% year-on-year over the first nine months of the year). At the same time as the recovery, inflation reached spectacular levels in 2021, with consumer prices reaching growth rates not seen since the mid-eighties in Europe and the United States. Firstly, the price of a barrel of Brent rose by more than 60% year-on-year. The price of natural gas also recorded an unprecedentedincrease of 342% in 2021, also affecting electricity prices. In Asia, repeated lockdowns led to the closure of factories and certain Chinese ports and then a shortage or poor geographical allocation of containers, thus weighing on the prices of intermediate goods and transport costs. In addition, the shortage of semiconductors in a context of increased demand (for electronic goods, electric vehicles, etc.), combinedwith climate hazards (drought in Asia leading to electricity shortages) increased the price of inputs. Labor shortages in some sectors and countries also exacerbated inflationary pressures. Finally, services, which faced a tightening of health rules or administrative closures, have sometimes recovered their margin. Numerous factors simultaneously fueled the sharp acceleration in inflation: +2.6% in 2021 in the euro zone (+0.3% in 2020), +6.8% in the United States (+1.2% in 2020).

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NATIXIS UNIVERSAL REGISTRATION DOCUMENT 2021