NATIXIS // 2021 Universal Registration Document

4 COMMENTS OF THE FISCAL YEAR Outlook for Natixis

Outlook for Natixis 4.6

After the rebound observed in 2021, growth is expected to slow significantly in the main regions of the world, due to the end of the catch-up effects, the dissipation of budget support plans and the gradual reduction of central bank support. In the United States, the effects of the household support plans are practically complete. The government is now planning the adoption and implementation of an infrastructure plan, the effects of which will be smoothed and visible over several years. The labor market is showing signs of slowing down, despite an unemployment rate now very close to its pre-pandemic level. In a context of high inflation, which could also force the Fed to raise its key rates and begin to reduce the size of its balance sheet starting in 2022, GDP growth should reach around 3% in 2022 compared to around 6% in 2021. In the euro zone, where the recovery was slightly later than in the United States due to a different health situation and more restrictive measures, the effects of catchingup should continue to act in 2022. Household savings rates at the end of 2021 had not returned to their pre-crisis levels, which suggests that there is still some support for private consumption.Labor marketsshould also continueto improve. As a result, both supplyand demandsupportfactorswouldargue for a soft normalization of growth rates towards relatively robust rates. Excluding the base effects due to “stop and go” episodes linked to lockdowns, growth of 4.3% in 2022 after 5.5% in 2021 canebxepected. With regard to Natixis’ business, 2022 will continue to roll out the new strategic plan for 2024, announced on July 8, 2021. This strategic plan sets out the sources of growth for the different divisions of Natixis, and the 2024 financial targets. For Natixis, “BPCE 2024” represents a growth and investment plan, illustrated by an average annual growth rate of around 5% in net banking income for the 2020-2024 period, accompanied by an improvement in the cost/income ratio. For the Asset & Wealth Management division, the average annual growth in net banking income is expected to be more than 3% over the 2020-2024 period with a very limited market effect and no external growth. For the Corporate & Investment Banking division, average annual growth in net banking income is expected to be around 7% over the period from 2020 to 2024, with green revenues multiplied by 1.7 between 2020 and 2024. For the Insurance division, average annual growth in net banking income is expected to be around 6% over the 2020 to 2024 period, accompanied by a target Property and Casualty Insurance/Personal Protection Insurance policyholder rate for individual customers of the Banques Populaires and Caisses d’Epargne of approximately 35% in 2024. For the Payments division, average annual growth in net banking income is expected to be around 9% over the period from 2020 to 2024. Lastly, as BPCE and Natixis announced as part of the strategic plan approved on July 8, 2021, Groupe BPCE is changing its organization by attaching the Insurance and Payments business lines of Natixis S.A. to BPCE, via the transfer by Natixis to BPCE of all the shares held by Natixis in Natixis Immo Exploitation (NIE) and by modifying the organization of the support departments by grouping together within BPCE S.A. the activities intended to be pooled.

This change aims to accelerate the development momentum of all Groupe BPCE business lines by providing them with the means to increase their strategic maneuverability, their development in the service of customersand their performance, through a simplification of its organization. The completionof this operation, approved by the Board of Directors on February 10,2022, and the authorities could take place during the first quarter of 2022. The outlook could also be impacted by the geopolitical context. At the end of February 2022, the Russian Federation launched a major military action in Ukraine. While Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the Western reaction to this invasion was strong. In a concerted manner, the European Union, the United States and many other states have adopted a series of unprecedented sanctions, including the freezing of the Russian Central Bank's foreign assets, the exclusion of certain Russian banks from SWIFT, and the announcement by many Western groups of their disengagement from the Russian Federation. Even if the essential subject of energy and natural gas remains for the moment outside the scope of the measures taken on both sides, the United States and Great Britain have announced their intention to ban the import of Russian oil and gas. In addition, new economic measures and sanctions could be adopted, including by the European Union and the United States, and retaliatory economic measures and sanctions could be adopted by the Russian Federation. This conflict could have major consequences on the Russian economy but also on the Western economies and more generally on the world economy. The risk of default on Russian debt, rising inflation and the loss of purchasingpower for the population in Russia are significant. A questioning of growth prospects and increased inflationarypressurecannot be ruled out in both the United States and Europe. As of February 28, 2022, exposures net of guarantees (direct on-balance sheet and off-balancesheet exposuresnet of guarantees to Russian and Ukrainian clients) amounted to €788 (1) million in Russia (of which €615 million - in management data - to corporate and structured financing counterparties) and €63 (2) million in Ukraine. In addition, in the Asset Management business on behalf of the Group's clients, the exposure to Russia of the various funds managed by Natixis Investment Managers, correspondingmainly to investments in bonds issued by the Russian government, amounted to €302 million ( in management data ) as of February 28, 2022, and €97 million ( in management data ) to Ukraine.

In management data - Gross exposures: €1,310m in Russia. (1) In management data - Gross exposures: €122m in Ukraine. (2)

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NATIXIS UNIVERSAL REGISTRATION DOCUMENT 2021