NATIXIS -2020 Universal Registration Document

OVERVIEW OF THE FISCAL YEAR Outlook for Natixis

Outlook for Natixis 4.6

After a year marked in 2020 by the COVID-19 crisis, a clearer horizon for 2021 is expected with a potential reduction in risk. Nevertheless, challenges remain present in a world where growth will be significantly different from one region to another due to their different ways of responding to the crisis. The expected success of the vaccine deployment has raised growth prospects for the next two years and improved visibility of the economic cycle. If interest rates should increase slightly although remaining at low levels, the outlook should be more promising for equities, which started to bounce back at the end of 2020. Growth trends should vary between China, the United States and the euro zone. The situation will remain robust in China with sustained growth in 2021 on the back of an import substitutionstrategy even if there will be financial risks. The level of GDP in 2021 is expected to be higher than in 2019. The American situation should be more complex given the very violent resurgence of the health crisis. Expected growth is expected to be low, possibly negative in the first quarter and has led to the implementationof a stimulus plan already approved by the House of Representativesin February 2021. GDP is not expected to return to the level of 2019 at the end of 2021. In the euro zone, the health crisis is still very present at the beginning of 2021. In the euro zone, the various stimulus plans should nevertheless make it possible to catch up in 2021 without reaching the 2019 GDP level before the end of the first quarter of 2022. The fiscal policy of the States will central to the macroeconomic momentum, and monetary policies will support this movement. This should help to maintain low interest rates for all maturities. The level of public debt, particularly in Europe and the United States, with still limited growth and fiscal policies remaining accommodative for a long time, will be a focus area. In this context, questions arose in early 2021 about the risks of inflation, and long-term interest rates rose in the United States. Over the period, the yields of the Bund 10Y and the UST 10Y should gradually move towards 30 bps and +1.70% respectively at the end of 2021, which would be associated with a steepening of the curve. In a less risky environment, peripheral spreads should also continue to tighten. Lastly, the equity markets should benefit from growth recovery and improved earnings forecasts. With regard to Natixis' business, a number of strategicdevelopments were announced in the third quarter of 2020, ahead of the presentationof a new medium-termplan that should potentially take place during the year 2021.

In Asset Management, the operational merger between Ostrum AM and LBP AM has now been completed while a sale agreement has been signed for the sale of Natixis IM’s 50.01% stake in H2O AM to the asset management company's management. With regard to Corporate & Investment Banking, a repositioning of the equity derivatives business line intended to discontinue the most complex products and reduce exposure limits was implemented towards the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. This repositioning should lead to annual revenues for the equities business of around €300 million. Also concerningCorporate& InvestmentBanking, while a refocusing of the trade finance activity was carried out during 2020, the reduction of exposures related to shale gas and oil should continue, with the aim of a full exit by 2022. In order to free up the necessary room for maneuver for the development of its business lines, Natixis has also announced an operational efficiency plan targeting nearly €350 million in cost savings by 2024 (~€120million achievedover 2021, ~€250million in 2022, ~€310 million in 2023 and ~€350 million in 2024) for an amount of investments classified as exceptional items of around €270 million (spread out until 2023). In terms of solvency, the disposals of 50.01% of the share capital of H2O AM and of 29.5% of the share capital of Coface (finalized on February 10, 2021) should make it possible to absorb the remainder of the regulatory impacts expected in 2021 (TRIM Banks, SA-CCR) which are estimated at around 20 bps after mitigation. It should also be noted that on February 9, 2021, Groupe BPCE announced its intention to file a takeover bid for around 29.3% of the share capital of Natixis that it does not hold (based on the issued and fully paid-up share capital as of December 31, 2020) at a price of €4 per Natixis share (dividend attached). BPCE has announced its intention to implement a squeeze-out procedure for all the shares not held by it in the event that the minority shareholdersdo not hold more than 10% of the Company's share capital and voting rights following the offer. This proposed offer would be part of an ambitious industrial project for the development of Natixis' business lines and the simplification of its functional channels, which Groupe BPCE intends to review. On February 10, 2021, BPCE S.A. filed an information document (which includes, in particular, the projected timetable of the transaction) with the French Financial Markets Authority (Autorité des Marchés Financiers), which can be consulted at the following address: https://groupebpce.com/en/content/download/24062/file/Communi qu%C3%A9%20norm%C3%A9%20du%20d%C3%A9p%C3%B4t%20du %20projet%20de%20note%20d%27information%20-%20ENG.pdf

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NATIXIS UNIVERSAL REGISTRATION DOCUMENT 2020