RISK REPORT Summary of risks
Changes in the fair value of Groupe BPCE’s portfolios of derivative securities and products, and its own debt, are liable to have an impact on the carrying amount of these assets and liabilities, and as a result on Groupe BPCE’s net income andequity The carrying amount of Groupe BPCE’s derivative securities, products and other types of assets, and of its own debt, is adjusted(at balance sheet level) at the date of each new financial statement. These adjustmentsare predominantlybased on changes in the fair value of assets and liabilities during an accounting period, i.e. changes recognized in the income statement or booked directly to equity. Changes recorded in the income statement, but not offset by corresponding changes in the fair value of other assets, have an impact on net banking income and thus on net income. All fair value adjustments have an impact on equity and thus on Groupe BPCE’s capital adequacy ratios. The fact that fair value adjustments are recorded over an accounting period does not mean that additional adjustments willnot be necessary insubsequent periods. Groupe BPCE’s ability to attract and retain skilled employees is paramount to the success of its business and failing to do so may affect itsperformance The employeesof Groupe BPCE entities are the Group’smost valuable resource.Competitionto attract qualifiedemployeesis fierce in many areas of the financial services sector. Groupe BPCE’s results depend on its ability to attract new employees and retain and motivate existing employees. Changes in the economic environment (in particular tax and other measures aimed at limiting the pay of banking sector employees) may compel Groupe BPCE to transfer its employees from one unit to another, or reduce the workforce in certain business lines, which may cause temporarydisruptionsdue to the time required for employees to adapt to their new duties, and may limit Groupe BPCE’s ability to benefit from improvementsin the economic environment. This may prevent Groupe BPCE from taking advantage of potentialopportunitiesin terms of sales or efficiency. Future events may vary compared to assumptions used by Managementto prepare Groupe BPCE’s financial statements,which may exposeit to unexpected losses In accordance with current IFRS standards and interpretations, Groupe BPCE must base its financialstatementson certain estimates, in particular accounting estimates relating to the determination of provisions for nonperforming loans and receivables, provisions for potential claims and litigation, and the fair value of certain assets and liabilities. If the values used for the estimates by Groupe BPCE prove to be materially inaccurate,in particular in the event of major and/or unexpectedmarket trends, or if the methodsused to calculate these values are modified due to future changes in IFRS standardsor interpretations, GroupeBPCE may be exposed to unexpected losses. Market fluctuations and volatility expose Groupe BPCE, in particularNatixis, to losses in itstrading andinvestmentactivities With respect to its trading and investment activities, Natixis holds positions in the bond, currency, commodity and equity markets, as well as in unlistedsecurities,real estate assets and other asset classes (this is also true of other GroupeBPCE entities,but to a lesser extent). These positions may be affected by volatility on the markets (especiallythe financial markets), i.e. the degree of price fluctuations
over a given period on a given market, regardlessof the levels on the market in question. Volatilitymay also trigger losses on a vast range of other trading and hedging products used by Natixis, including swaps, futures, options and structured products, if prices or price variations are lower or higher than Natixis’ estimates. As Natixis holds assets or has net long positionsin these markets,any market correctionwould lead to losses due to a decreasein the value of these net long positions. Conversely, as Natixis has disposed of assets which it does not own or on which it held net short positions in these markets, any rebound in these markets may expose it to losses due to measurestaken to hedge these net short positionswith purchases in a rising market. Natixis may, on occasion, implement a trading strategy involving a long position in one asset and a short position in another, from which it intends to generate net gains on the change in the relative value of both assets. However, if the relative value of both assets changes in the same direction, or to an extent not anticipatedby Natixis,or for which no hedgingtransaction has been set up, the company could record a loss on its arbitrage positions.If material,these lossesmay weigh on the results of Natixis’ transactionsand financialposition,and thus on GroupeBPCE’s results and financial position. Groupe BPCE’s revenues from brokerage and other activities associated with fee and commission income may decrease in the event ofmarket downturns A market downturn is liable to lower the volume of transactions executedby GroupeBPCE entitiesfor their customersand as a market maker, thus reducing net banking income from these activities. Furthermore, as managementfees invoiced by Groupe BPCE entities to their customersare generallybased on the value or performanceof portfolios, any decline in the markets causing the value of these portfolios to decrease or generating an increase in the amount of redemptions would reduce the revenues earned by these entities through the distribution of mutual funds or other investment products (for the Caisses d’Epargne and the Banque Populaire banks) or throughasset managementactivities(for Natixis). Even if there is no market decline, if mutual funds and other Groupe BPCE products underperformthe market, redemptions may increase and inflows decrease as a result, with a potential corresponding impact onrevenues fromthe Group’s asset management business. Extended market declines may reduce market liquidity and thus make it difficult to sell certain assets, in turn generatingmaterial losses In some of Groupe BPCE’s activities, extended market trends (in particulardownturnsin asset prices) may reduce the level of business on the market or its liquidity. Such trends may result in material losses if Groupe BPCE is unable to unwind positions whose value is falling, when necessary.This may be the case, for example, for assets held by Groupe BPCE in markets that naturallytend to be illiquid. The valuationof these assets, which are not traded on stock exchangesor other public markets (e.g. derivatives traded between banks), is determined using models rather than official market prices. It is difficult to monitor declines in the prices of such assets and, consequently, Groupe BPCE runs the risk of incurring unexpected losses.
Registration document 2017
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