BPCE - 2019 Universal Registration Document
MARKET RISKS RISK REPORT
STRESS TEST RESULTS MAIN HYPOTHETICAL STRESS TESTS
12/31/2019
Default by an influential corporation
Increase in interest rates
Emerging market crisis
Market downturn
Default by a
bank Commodities
in millions of euros
Natixis trading BRED trading
21
(36) (9.3)
(33)
(13)
14
3
(3.9)
(25.4)
(16.7)
(0.7)
(4.2)
BPCE subsidiaries trading OVERALL TRADING BOOK
0
0
0
0
0
0
17.1
(45.3)
(58.4)
(29.7)
13.3
(1.2)
The highest-risk hypothetical stress test is the “Default by a bank” scenario.
MAIN HISTORICAL STRESS TESTS
12/31/2019
Fed post-2007 subprime crisis measures
2011 sovereign debt crisis
2008 ABS & MBS corp. crisis
1994 bond market crash
2002 credit crunch
in millions of euros Natixis trading BRED trading
(29)
11
(12)
(4)
15
0.9
(11.7)
(20.7)
(2.8)
3.3
BPCE subsidiaries trading OVERALL TRADING BOOK
0
0
0
0
0
(28.1)
(0.7)
(32.7)
(6.8)
18.3
The historical scenario generating the highest impact for the Group is the “2008 ABS & MBS corporate crisis” scenario. The historical scenario generating the highest impact for the Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking division is the “2011 sovereign debt crisis” scenario.
GROUP STRESS TEST AVERAGE FOR 2019
250 in millions of euros
6
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
1990 Gulf war
Liquidity crisis
1997 Asian crisis
1998 LTCM crisis
Default by a bank
2002 credit crunch
September 11, 2001
2008 Lehman crisis
Commodities crisis
Emerging market crisis
2009 stock market rally
Increase in interest rate
1987 stock market crash
1994 bond market crash
2011 sovereign debt crisis 2008 ABS & MBS corporate crisis
Fall in stock market indices
Default by an influential corporate
FED post-2007 subprime crisis measures
633
UNIVERSAL REGISTRATION DOCUMENT 2019 | GROUPE BPCE
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