Areva - Reference Document 2016

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BUSINESS OVERVIEW

6.1 Markets for nuclear power and renewable energies

Are the current reduction intentions sufficient? TheUnitedStates andChina – the largest producers of GHG fromenergy, accounting for more than half of all emissions – committed in 2014 to future reductions. The United States established the Clean Power Plan in 2015 under President Obama’s leadership. This plan calls for reductions of 17% in 2022, 26-28% in 2025, and 32% in 2030 compared with 2005 levels in the power generation sector. Each state will have to meet a reduction objective set by the Federal government, which differs from state to state. In 2014, China stated that it was committed to using 20% non-fossil fuels in its energy mix by 2030 while limiting its coal consumption. The European Union, which was a pioneer with its Energy-Climate policy, has already committed to a 20% reduction of its GHG emissions by 2020 compared with 1990 levels. The reduction to be met by 2030 is 40%. The compilation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) submitted in 2015 shows that the desired objective cannot be achieved: the temperature increase would range from +2.7°C to +3.5°C by 2100. The countries’ intended contributions currently cover only half of the requirements.

To achieve the +2°C objective, carbon emissions would have to be limited to 42 billion metric tons in 2030, yet forecasts put those emissions in the range of 55-60 billion metric tons of CO 2 . Carbon dioxide emissions and the generation of electricity have increased proportionately since the 1990s. In the New Policies Scenario to 2040 of the IEA- WEO 2016, which includes the NDCs of the different countries, there is a gap between those two numbers. Whereas power generation rises nearly 67% over the period, energy-related CO 2 emissions grow by only 11%, thanks to energy efficiency and less use of coal. This scenario leads to a long-term temperature increase of 2.7°C ( Source: WEO 2016 ). The logical conclusion of all these debates is that no source of energy should be ignored in the mix, in particular nuclear power, recognized as one of the means to fight climate change. To change the direction of the emissions curve, several States have decided to assign an economic value to carbon and have created emissions trading markets. Currently, a global market for emissions permits does not exist. However, the emissions avoided by projects connected with the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol may be exchanged between States.

STATUS OF THE LEADING EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEMS (ETS)

KAZ ETS since 2013

Turkey: Particularly considered for the power sector

Russian and Ukrainian ETS considered

Regional initiatives:

p Québec (2013) now linked with California since 2014 p Considered in Ontario, Manitoba and British Columbia

Linkage between the Swiss (2008) and European ETS since January 2016

p Pilots in China: 5 cities and 2 provinces since 2013-2014 p National ETS planned for 2017

Regional initiatives:

EU ETS since 2005

RGGI (2009)

p

California (2013)

Korean ETS implemented in 2015

p

p Emissions standards in the state of Washington since 2016

Regional initiatives:

Tokyo (2010)

p

p Saitama prefecture (2011)

NZ ETS since 2008

Assessment of several market tools for a national ETS Regional initiatives in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro delayed

Market system in place Regional market system in place Market system considered

Australian Carbon Pricing Mechanism abolished in 2014

Source: ICAP, 2016.

At the global level, more than 40 countries have set up or scheduled economic instruments to monetize carbon, whether through emission trading systems or taxes. The map shows the largest emission trading markets, which are in varying stages of maturity. p

In January 2005, Europe set up a system for capping CO 2 with the emissions trading system (ETS). The EU-ETS is one of the first such systems in the world and currently remains the largest, with the 28 Member States of the European Union in addition to Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. It is one of the most mature systems.

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2016 AREVA REFERENCE DOCUMENT