Airbus // Universal Registration Document 2023
1. Information on the Company’s Activities
1.1 Presentation of the Company
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replaced. Overall, the market for new commercial aircraft has evolved from oversupply during the pandemic to under-supply. The Company’s assessment is that the pandemic has not structurally changed the long-term market for commercial aircraft. Airbus’ 2023 Global Market Forecast projects that demand for passenger traffic will grow annually by 3.6% CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) between 2019 and 2042 and that demand for air cargo will grow by 3.2% CAGR over the same period. The forecast is based on macroeconomic assumptions from information services provider IHS-Markit and energy price projections considering the European Union Emissions Trading System (“ EU-ETS ”), the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (“ CORSIA ”) and stated environmental policies of sovereign states. The forecast explored thousands of sensitivities around future energy prices, SAF penetration rates, GDP, fuel efficiency gains, etc. and reflects the median outcome of these scenarios. Airbus forecasts a demand for approximately 40,850 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years, of which approximately 32,630 (~80%) would typically be Single Aisle and 8,220 (~20%) Widebody. Around 17,170 of these aircraft would replace existing aircraft. The demand for Freighters is expected to reach approximately 2,510 aircraft over the next 20 years, with roughly 920 of these being newly built aircraft, and the remainder converted from the in-service passenger fleet. The centre of gravity of global air transport will continue to shift towards Asia, with the strongest growth markets being those to/from/within India and China. Airbus is focused on providing more fuel-efficient aircraft for fleet replacement and growth. Currently only 30% of the world fleet consists of the latest-generation aircraft typified by Airbus’ current portfolio. Through its analysis Airbus continues to believe in the long-term growth potential of the industry, and consequently aims to accelerate the development of lower emission technologies, including hydrogen-powered aircraft, and foster ecosystem readiness and the dynamic deployment of SAF. A full overview of the Company’s roadmap to reducing emissions can be found in the “Product Stewardship” section of 1.2.2(IV). Market Structure and Competition Market segments. Airbus competes in each of the three principal market segments for aircraft with more than 100 seats. Single-Aisle and Widebody aircraft each have a large breadth of application to route networks. Single-Aisle aircraft typically fly on shorter routes but may also fly on medium-to-long-haul routes. Widebody aircraft typically fly on medium-to-long-haul routes but may equally fly on short-haul sectors where airline network efficiencies, cargo demand or slot constraints favour such use. Airbus’ annual Global Market Forecast is a 20-year demand forecast for aircraft of 100 seats and above clustered by generic sizes, recognising that the size and range characteristics of future products in the industry are not fixed. In Airbus’ 2023 Global Market Forecast this demand has been clustered simply into two categories: “Typically Single-Aisle” and “Typically Widebody” but the forecast recognises a degree of permeability between these two demand categories as illustrated by the A321XLR’s
reach into longer-haul markets and the appeal of A330neo for example in the Middle East and Asia. “Freight” aircraft, such as the A350 Freighter, which form a third, related segment, are a combination of newly built and converted ex-passenger aircraft. Converted aircraft are prevalent in the expanding e-commerce market, which typically sees a relatively low utilisation of new aircraft. This can provide an economical “second life” for in-service aircraft from the A320 and A330 families. See “– Airbus Canada, Regional Aircraft, Aerostructures, Seats, Aircraft Conversion – EFW”. In 2021, Airbus launched a new A350F freighter model in response to customer demand. The addition of a freighter variant is also expected to contribute to a greater resilience of the A350 Programme to future market fluctuations. With the ACJ, Airbus also competes in the corporate and VIP business jet market. The ACJ portfolio is composed of the ACJ319neo, the ACJ320neo, the ACJ330neo and the ACJ350. To complete the ACJ family, the first ACJ TwoTwenty entered into service in April 2023. Geographic differences. The high proportion of single aisle aircraft in use in North America and Europe reflects the predominance of domestic short-range and medium-range flights, also resulting from the expansion of low-cost carriers and, particularly, in North America from development of hubs following deregulation. In comparison with North America and Europe, the Asia-Pacific region uses a greater proportion of twin-aisle aircraft, as populations tend to be more concentrated in large urban centres. The use of twin-aisle aircraft is also reinforced by the fact that many of the region’s major airports limit the number of flights due to environmental concerns or the infrastructure constraints that limit the flight frequency. These constraints lead to higher average aircraft seating capacity per flight. However, Airbus believes that demand for single aisle aircraft in Asia will grow over the next 20 years, particularly as domestic markets in China and India will continue to grow and low-cost carriers continue to develop in the region. Competition. Airbus has been operating in a competitive duopoly since Lockheed’s withdrawal from the market in 1984 and Boeing’s acquisition of McDonnell Douglas in 1997. As a result, the bulk of the market for passenger aircraft of more than 150 seats have been manufactured by either Airbus or Boeing. Nevertheless, the high technology and high value nature of the business makes aircraft manufacturing an attractive industry in which to participate, and besides Boeing, Airbus faces international competitors. Embraer’s primary focus has been on the regional market where its largest E2-jet product overlaps with the smallest Airbus aircraft. Embraer has not announced intentions for higher-capacity aircraft and shelved plans for a 70/90-seat regional turboprop in early 2023. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries previously cancelled their regional aircraft programme prior to Entry-Into-Service. New Russian programmes in the 100-seat and 180-seat categories are supported with renewed political vigour and resource but delayed by several years whilst components are substituted by those of Russian manufacture. These have a limited addressable market. In February 2020, Airbus SE, the Government of Québec and Bombardier Inc. agreed upon a new ownership structure for the A220 programme, whereby Bombardier transferred its remaining shares in Airbus Canada Limited Partnership (Airbus Canada) to Airbus and the Government of Québec. This agreement brings the shareholdings in Airbus Canada,
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Universal Registration Document 2023
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